Betting Big On Maduro Pays Nearly Half A Million

Someone turned a $32,537 stake into about $436,000 by betting that Venezuela’s president would be out of power — and the timing has put prediction markets under the microscope. The wager was placed on Polymarket, a crypto-driven prediction platform, by an account that only joined last month. The anonymous user — visible on the blockchain only as a string of letters and numbers — took four positions tied to Venezuela and ended up with roughly £322,000 in winnings. Polymarket’s market data shows the probability of Nicolás Maduro leaving office was priced at about 6.5% on the afternoon of 2 January. The odds climbed to around 11% just before midnight and then surged in the early hours of 3 January, just ahead of a post by former US president Donald Trump on Truth Social saying Maduro was in US custody. The sharp movement in the hours before that announcement is what has alarmed observers. Advocates for tighter financial rules say the trade looks suspicious. Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, told US media the pattern bears the hallmarks of trading on non-public information. A handful of other users also profited, taking home tens of thousands of dollars each — adding weight to questions about whether inside knowledge was involved. The episode highlights a regulatory blind spot. Insider trading is prohibited in securities markets, but prediction markets operate with fewer explicit rules. Congress has started to respond: Representative Ritchie Torres introduced legislation aimed at stopping government employees from betting on such platforms when they hold material non-public information relevant to a market. Prediction markets have boomed in the US: companies like Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted huge sums, including hundreds of millions of dollars wagered around the 2024 presidential race. The sector has drawn mixed political attention — earlier scrutiny under the Biden administration has given way to a warmer reception during the Trump presidency. Donald Trump Jr. is listed as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Platforms insist they prohibit insider trading. A Kalshi spokesperson said the company bans any form of insider trading, including government employees transacting on markets tied to government actions. Polymarket had not replied to requests for comment. Beyond the money, this episode raises broader questions for voters and lawmakers alike: how do you police markets built on fast-moving political events, run on public blockchains that reveal activity but not identity, and potentially intersect with national security information? For now, one anonymous bet has done more than line a pocket — it has shone a spotlight on an industry that regulators and politicians can no longer ignore. --- Managing your business finances? TaxAce provides smart online accountancy services for UK businesses with flexible monthly plans. Image and reporting: https://www.bbc.co.uk | Read original article